Feedstock Assessment and Analyses Project Summaries for 1998-1999


	Feedstock Assessment and Analyses Projects
	Western Forests and Bioenergy Research Funded by: U.S. Department of Energy through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Project Manager: Robin L. Graham, 865-576-7756, Grahamrl@ornl.gov Performing Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. Box 2008, MS-6422, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6422, http://bioenergy.ornl.gov/bfdpmain.html Principal Investigator: Robin Graham, 865.576.7756, grahamrl@ornl.gov Contract Number: Internal project Contract Period: 7//97-9/99 Contract Funding: FY 1998: $160,000 FY 1999: $160,925 Objective: Fire suppression in the western US has resulted in a forest structure (many small crowded trees) which is highly vulnerable to catastrophic fire. Biomassing, the harvest of excess trees too small for traditional forest products but suitable for bioenergy, has been proposed as a means of reducing fire risk, restoring the forest to pre-european settlement conditions, and providing a new source of income. However, the long-term economic and environmental sustainability of this practice is unknown. Working with local community groups this project focused on understanding the effect of biomassing on water yield and the long-term flow of biomass wood from these forests. Approach/Background: To evaluate the impact on water yield, an EPA/USFS hydrologic model for forests was modified and utilized in a Geographic Information System to estimate water yield changes in the Northern Sierra Nevada. An area encompassing ~15,000 square miles was considered. Change was evaluated by comparing model predictions of water yield under current versus thinned forest conditions. The US Forest Service's growth and yield models were used to evaluate the long term effect of biomassing on forest structure and to determine how much biomass could come from western forests after the initial thinning. The models were programmed to simulate the harvest and removal of small trees on a 20 year interval. A harvesting strategy was developed which sought to recreate and maintain a stand structure similar to that prior to european settlement. The amount of wood that would be harvested under such a strategy and the subsequent stand structure (size and number of trees) were tracked. Status/Accomplishments: This project is finished although publications are still being developed. The water modeling study found that even with very aggressive application of biomassing there would be little impact on water yield. The forest growth and yield modeling found that biomassing could produce a continuous flow of biomass wood from the forest. A regular harvest every 20 years with some removal of large trees (less than 30% at any one harvest) was found to create a stable stand structure that is both fire resilient and contains large old growth trees. The results of the two studies were presented to local community groups, reside on the BFDP Web site, and are being submitted to both forestry and bioenergy publication outlets. Publications and Presentations: Hollenstein, K. 1999. "Simulating fuel treatment thinnings and biomass flow from western forests." http://bioenergy.ornl.gov/papers/western2/index.html Graham et al. 1998. "Bioenergy and watershed restoration in regions of the west: What are the environmental/community issues?" http://bioenergy.ornl.gov/papers/bioen98/graham.html Huff, D.D, W. Hargrove., M.L. Tharp, and R. Graham. 2000. "Managing forest for water yield: the importance of scale". J. of Forestry. (Accepted) Huff, D.D., W.W. Hargrove, R.L. Graham. 1999. "Adaption of WRENSS-Fortran-77 for a GIS application for water-yield changes". ORNL/TM- 13747. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831. 50 pgs. Huff, D.D., W.H. Hargrove, R.L. Graham, N. Nikolov, and M.L. Tharp. "A GIS/simulation framework for assessing change in water yield over large spatial scales". Environmental Management. (Submitted) Hollenstein, K. and R.L. Graham. "Biomass flow from fuel treatments in western forests". Biomass and Bioenergy. (in prep) Hollenstein, K., R.L. Graham and W. Shepperd. "Simulating biomass flow from fuel treatment thinnings in western forests". J. of Forestry. (in prep) Hollenstein, K. "Fuel Treatment Thinnings for Bioenergy: An overview." ORNL/TM- . Oak Ridge National laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831. (in prep) Summary Date: September 1999

	Minnesota Wood Energy Scale-up Project Research Funded by: U.S. Department of Energy through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Project Manager: Mark Downing, 865.576.8140, downingme@ornl.gov Performing Organization: WesMin Resource Conserv.& Development Council, 900 Robert Street, Suite 104, Alexandria, MN 56308 Principal Investigator: Dean Schmidt, 320.763. 4733, das2@mn.usda.gov Contract Number: 1BX-SP814V Contract Period: 01/94-12/00 Contract Funding: FY 1998: $35,000 FY 1999: $50,000 Objective: The objective of this project is to plant short-rotation hybrid poplar within a 50-mile radius of Alexandria, MN. In addition, research was conducted on what it took to collect economic costs and data from establishment, management, maintenance, and harvesting of nearly 2000 acres on farmer-owned Conservation Reserve Program land. Approach/Background: Until 1994, there were no established plantings of hybrid poplar on farmer-owned Conservation Reserve Program land. Understanding what was needed in moving from 1-10 acre research plots, to 50-350 acre plots 1000 acres at a time, was necessary if commercial development and farmer adoption was to occur. The effort to manage operations, and to collect data on establishment and maintenance of these plantings through rotation is critical to understanding potential adoption as a crop by farmers. In addition, many additional production functions needed to be worked out. For example, it is necessary to understand dispersal funds to cooperators and landowners in the project. Throughout the rotation, cooperating agency personnel monitored the progress of the plantings and deported on progress. The remaining 5 years of the anticipated 10-year rotation will involve refining procedural approaches to crop management, understanding potential harvesting and final market avenues, and documenting the actual cost of short-rotation hybrid poplar production. Status/Accomplishments: Several publications were produced in the first 3 years documenting actual total costs of production. Herbicide trials were conducted to document results and effectiveness of application of herbicides directly resulting in re-labeling herbicides for application on hybrid poplar. Specific field-by-field production budgets are detailed enough to realize field establishment per-acre cost-reduction. Project cooperators have showcased the project at FarmFest, one of Minnesota's largest farm producer shows for three consecutive years. FY2000 funding is anticipated to include mid-rotation fertilization research on an appropriate sample of hybrid poplar acreage in the project. Publications and Presentations: Downing, Mark, Ron Stoffel, Thomas Kroll, and Daniel Langseth. 1997. Minnesota Wood Energy Scale-up Project 1995 and 1996 Establishment Cost Data. ORNL/TM-13393. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Downing, Mark, Rick Pierce and Thomas Kroll. 1994. 1994 Establishment Cost Data - Minnesota Wood Energy Scale-up Project. ORNL/TM-12914. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Summary Date: September 1999

	Biomass Resource Assessment--Technical Assistance and Computer Support Research Funded by: U.S. Department of Energy through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Project Manager: Marie Walsh, 865.576.5607, walshme@ornl.gov Performing Organization: Eclipse Technology, Inc., 1010 Commerce Park Drive, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 Principal Investigator: Denny Becker, 865.481.4638, DennyBecker@hotmail.com Contract Number: 74B-99231C Contract Period: 10/97-09/99 Contract Funding: FY 1998: $24,500 FY 1999: $36,540 Objective: Provide computer support for (1) the development of user-friendly, publicly-available biomass resource models, (2) the development of biomass resource databases, and (3) statistical analyses Approach/Background: The project provides support for (1) the development and maintenance of the BIOCOST software program that estimates the cost of producing bioenergy crops in the U.S., (2) the development of a new, searchable database of biomass feedstock quantities and prices by feedstock type and geographic location, and (3) statistical analysis used in existing databases such as ORECCL and other on-going economic analysis. Status/Accomplishments: A state level biomass resource database has been developed and linked to a mapping capability. BIOCOST has been updated to include willows and a new harvesting module for poplar is under development. Publications and Presentations: Girouard, P., M.E. Walsh, and D.A. Becker. 1999. BIOCOST-Canada: a new tool to evaluate the economic, energy, and carbon budgets of perennial energy crops. Pp. 85-90. In Proceedings of the Fourth Biomass Conference of the Americas. Elsevier Science, Ltd., Oxford, UK. Summary Date: September 1999

	Economic Analysis and Synthesis Research Funded by: U.S. Department of Energy through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Project Manager: Marie Walsh, 865.576.5607, walshme@ornl.gov Performing Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6205 Principal Investigator: Marie Walsh, 865.576.5607, walshme@ornl.gov Contract Number: Internal project Contract Period: 10/98-09/00 Contract Funding: FY 1998: $ 219,620 FY 1999: $ 151,000 Objective: Conduct economic analysis in support of Resource Economics Task projects; respond to DOE requests for economic analysis in support of emerging analytical and policy priorities; conduct short-term analysis in support of other BFDP tasks; engage in technology transfer activities; serve as an agricultural and economic consultant to DOE and BFDP; and provide management review and oversight of Resource Economics Task projects. Approach/Background The task provides management review, oversight, and economic analysis in support of the Resource Economics Task projects including (1) maintenance and upkeep of the BIOCOST model, (2) creation of a biomass resource database, (3) development of biomass resource supply curves, (4) biomass feedstock logistics modeling, and (5) macroeconomic and policy analysis. Additionally, the task supplies relevant economic and agricultural information on a timely basis to DOE, other BFDP activities, and to the public and engages in the publication of technical and popular reports, fact sheets, briefing papers, and presentations at meetings and conferences. Status/Accomplishments: BIOCOST is a budget generator model used to estimate regional and local costs of producing bioenergy crops. BIOCOST was recently updated to include willow and a new hybrid poplar harvesting module. A biomass resource database of five feedstock types (forest residues, mill residues, urban wood wastes, agricultural residues, bioenergy crops) has been constructed. Information available includes quantities available by state for each feedstock type at selected price levels. The data base is used to estimate national and regional level biomass feedstock supply curves that are used in several ongoing DOE supported studies such as the Ethanol Evolution Study, the Transition to Alternative Fueled Vehicle Study, and the EIA-NEMS model. Under a joint project with USDA, POLYSYS, an agricultural sector model was modified to include bioenergy crops (switchgrass, hybrid poplar, and willows). The model was used to evaluate the quantities of bioenergy crops that could be potentially produced at different bioenergy crop prices, and to estimate the impact of bioenergy crop production on the quantities and prices of traditional agricultural crops and on net farm returns. The analysis has been cited in two bills introduced in the U.S. Senate, by the Secretary of Agriculture in announcing a new biobased initiative, and as part of the Presidential Executive Statement on bioenergy and biobased products. Work is beginning to compare the cost of several different feedstock collecting, transporting, storing, and handling systems. Work is also beginning to evaluate the macroeconomic impacts (jobs, economic multipliers) of developing an ethanol industry using biomass feedstocks (corn stover). Publications and Presentations: de la Torre Ugarte, D., M.E. Walsh, H. Shapouri, and S.P. Slinsky. March, 2000. Economic impacts of bioenergy crop production in U.S. agriculture, draft final report . Walsh, M.E. 1998. U.S. bioenergy crop economic analysis: status and needs. Biomass and Bioenergy 14(4): 341-350. Walsh, M.E. 2000. Method to estimate bioenergy crop feedstock supply curves. Biomass and Bioenergy (in press). Walsh, M.E. 1999. Biomass resources in the U.S.--potential quantities and prices. Presented at the NEMS workshop, Washington DC, March 22, 1999. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. McLaughlin, S. B. and M. E. Walsh. 1998. Evaluating environmental consequences of producing herbaceous crops for bioenergy. Biomass and Bioenergy 14(4): 317-324. Girouard, P., M.E. Walsh, and D.A. Becker. 1999. BIOCOST-Canada: a new tool to evaluate the economic, energy, and carbon budgets of perennial energy crops. Pp. 85-90. In Proceedings of the Fourth Biomass Conference of the Americas. Elsevier Science, Ltd., Oxford, UK. Walsh, M.E., P.J. Ince, D. de la Torre Ugarte, D. Adams, R. Alig, J. Mills, H. Spelter, K. Skog, S.P. Slinsky, D.E. Ray, and R.L. Graham. 1999. Potential of short rotation wood crops as a fiber and energy source in the U.S. Pp. 63-68. In Proceedings of the Fourth Biomass Conference of the Americas. Elsevier Science, Ltd., Oxford, UK. Walsh, M.E., D. de la Torre Ugarte, S. Slinsky, R.L. Graham, and D. Ray. 1998. Estimating energy crop production regions, quantities, and price. Pp. In Proceedings of the BIOENERGY'98 Conference. Great Lakes Regional Biomass Energy Program. Walsh, M.E. 1999. Modeling the economic potential of bioenergy crops in the U.S. Presented at the International Energy Agency Task XIV Meeting, Auburn, September 6-8, 1999. International Energy Agency. de la Torre Ugarte, D., M.E. Walsh, H. Shapouri, and S.P. Slinsky. 1999. Economic impacts of bioenergy crop production in U.S. agriculture. Presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Nashville, August 8-11, 1999. American Agricultural Economic Association. Summary Date: September 1999

	Geographic Information System to Analyze Cost and Supply of Biomass Feedstocks at a State Level (ORIBAS Model) Research Funded by: U.S. Department of Energy through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Project Manager: Marie Walsh, 865.576.5607, walshme@ornl.gov Performing Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6038 Principal Investigator: Craig Brandt, 865.574.1921, BrandtCC@ornl.gov Contract Number: Internal project Contract Period: 10/98-09/00 Contract Funding: FY 1998: $ 83,000 FY 1999: $ 49,000 Objective: Estimate numbers and location of user facilities (given a feedstock demand level) and calculate delivered biomass feedstock price needed to meet facility demand. Approach/Background: ORIBAS is a GIS-based state-level modeling system that estimates delivered feedstock costs to a user facility given the user facility feedstock demand level, state, road network, and feedstock price, quantity, and production location. ORIBAS will be updated with bioenergy crop feedstock quantities, prices, and location from the POLYSYS model. ORIBAS will also be expanded to include agricultural residues as a possible feedstock. Additionally, the geographic scale of the model will be increased and the road network simplified where possible to enhance the operating speed and efficiency of the model. Status/Accomplishments: The modifications and updates to the model have been completed. ORIBAS is being used to estimate the location and number of ethanol facilities (2000 MT/day size) that can be supported using corn stover as the biomass feedstock in the ten largest corn producing states. Delivered costs of the feedstock to the user facility are being estimated. Publications and Presentations: Noon, C.E., M.J. Daly, R.L. Graham, and F.B. Zhan. 1996. Transportation and site location analysis for regional integrated biomass assessment (RIBA). In Proceedings of the BIOENERGY'96 Conference. Southeastern Regional Biomass Energy Program. pp.487-493. Graham, R.L., W. Liu, J.I. Jager, B.C. English, C.E. Noon, and M.J. Daly. 1996. A regional-scale GIS-based modeling system for evaluating the potential costs and supplies of biomass from biomass crops. In Proceedings of the BIOENERGY'96 Conference. Southeastern Regional Biomass Energy Program. pp.444-450. Summary Date: September 1999

	Macroeconomic Impacts of Using Corn Stover to Produce Ethanol Research Funded by: U.S. Department of Energy through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Project Manager: Marie Walsh, 865.576.5607, walshme@ornl.gov Performing Organization: University of Tennessee, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center, 310 Morgan Hall, Knoxville, TN 37901-1071andOak Ridge National Laboratory P.O. Box 2005 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6038 Principal Investigators: B.C. English, 865.974.3716, benglish@utk.edu; Craig Brandt, 865.574.1921, brandtcc@ornl.gov Contract Number: Contract Number:350-00-11227 Contract Period: 06/99-09/00 Contract Funding: FY 1999: $56,097 Objective: To evaluate macroeconomic impacts of developing an ethanol industry using corn stover as the feedstock. Approach/Background: The development of an ethanol industry using corn stover as the feedstock, will impact farm income and community economic activities (such as jobs and multiplier impacts). This project will estimate some of the potential economic impacts resulting from the development of the industry. States included in the analysis will be those with the highest corn production. The method used involves first estimating the average quantities and farmgate price of corn stover at a county level. ORIBAS, a GIS-based state-level modeling system that estimates delivered feedstock costs to a user facility given the user facility feedstock demand level, state road network, and feedstock price, quantity, and production locations is used to estimate delivered price of corn stover to ethanol facilities. IMPLAN, a regional input-output model is used to estimate macroeconomic impacts. Status/Accomplishments: The component models have been developed and modified to accept the appropriate data. County level corn stover quantities and farmgate prices have been estimated and incorporated into ORIBAS. Preliminary estimates of ethanol plant locations and delivered feedstock prices have been made for plants using 2000 MT feedstocks/day. Publications and Presentations: None Summary Date: September 1999

	National Agricultural Sector Equilibrium Model (POLYSYS) Research Funded by: U.S. Department of Energy through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Project Manager: Marie Walsh, 865.576.5607, walshme@ornl.gov Performing Organization: University of Tennessee, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center, 310 Morgan Hall, Knoxville, TN 37901-1071 Principal Investigator: Daniel de la Torre Ugarte, 865.974.7407, danieltu@utk.edu Contract Number: 450-00-6461 Contract Period: 04/99-06/99 Contract Funding: FY 1999: $47,448 Objective: Analyze the economic impact on the agricultural sector of using Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and other idled acres for the production of bioenergy crops. Approach/Background: The POLYSYS model, a multi-product, multi-sector, multi-region agricultural model has been used to estimate the economic competitiveness of bioenergy crops with traditional agricultural crops at various bioenergy crop prices, and to evaluate the impact of bionergy crop production on traditional crop quantities, prices, and net farm returns. This project extends existing analysis to include bioenergy crop production on cropland acres in the CRP and that are idled or in pasture. In cooperation with USDA, CRP acres suitable for production and harvest of bioenergy crops have been identified and management practices designed to maintain the environmental benefits of the CRP program have been developed. Yields and production costs have been adjusted to correspond to expected productivity of CRP, idled, and pasture acres. Status/Accomplishments: Two CRP scenarios have been run--one that provides high wildlife diversity and for high biomass production. Both scenarios assume farmers receive 75% of current rental rate. At a farmgate price of $30/dry ton for switchgrass ($31.74/dt for willow and $32.90/dt for poplar) and assuming the wildlife CRP scenario, an estimated 17.4 million acres (10.4 million in crop production, 6.2 million CRP, 0.2 million idled, 0.5 million pasture) could be used to produce 79 million dry tons of bioenergy crops. Traditional crop prices increase slightly (<5%) and net farm returns increase by $2.3 billion. At a farmgate price of $40/dry ton for switchgrass ($42.32/dt for willow and $43.87/dt for poplar) and assuming the production CRP scenario, an estimated 41.9 million acres (23.4 million in crop production, 12.9 million CRP, 2.1 million idled, 3.5 million pasture) could be used to produce 188 million dry tons of bioenergy crops. Traditional crop prices increase 10-15% and net farm returns increase by $5.5 billion. The analysis has been cited, among others, in two bills introduced in the U.S. Senate, by the Secretary of Agriculture in announcing a new biobased initiative, and as part of the Presidential Executive Statement on bioenergy and biobased products. Publications and Presentations: de la Torre Ugarte, D., M.E. Walsh, H. Shapouri, and S.P. Slinsky. March, 2000. Economic impacts of bioenergy crop production in U.S. agriculture, draft final report . Walsh, M.E., P.J. Ince, D. de la Torre Ugarte, D. Adams, R. Alig, J. Mills, H. Spelter, K. Skog, S.P. Slinsky, D.E. Ray, and R.L. Graham. 1999. Potential of short rotation wood crops as a fiber and energy source in the U.S., pp. 63-68. In Proceedings of the Fourth Biomass Conference of the Americas. Elsevier Science, Ltd., Oxford, UK. de la Torre Ugarte, D., M.E. Walsh, H. Shapouri, and S.P. Slinsky. 1999. Economic impacts of bioenergy crop production in U.S. agriculture. Presented at the American Agricultural Economic Association Annual Meeting, Nashville, TN, August 8-11, 1999. Summary Date: September 1999

	Stakeholder Interfaces Research Funded by: U.S. Department of Energy through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Project Manager: Lynn Wright, 865.574.7378, wrightll@ornl.gov Performing Organization: Bioenergy Feedstock Development Program, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6422, http://bioenergy.ornl.gov/bfdpmain.html Principal Investigator: Elizabeth Peelle, 865.483.8974, peelleeb@ornl.gov Contract Number: Internal Project Contract Period: 12/15/98-9/30/01 Contract Funding: FY 1999: $ 87,000 Objective: The goal of this project is to enable constructive dialogue and interaction between DOE and its external stakeholders. The objectives are to identify, describe and analyze stakeholder views, concerns and issues about bioenergy and identify their information needs. Approach/Background: We chose 25 environmental groups from among five categories to ensure a broad range of organizational types and issue focus for this exploratory study. 48 interview/discussions were held with staff and member/volunteers of national, regional and local organizations. Because of the enormous range of stakeholder knowledge about bioenergy, the study design was altered to hold discussions rather than structured interviews. The discussions covered general views on biomass and bioenergy, views on various biomass feedstocks, costs of bioenergy, conversion of biomass to bioenergy (cofiring). We solicited their views and concerns about any aspect of bioenergy and asked them to list issues raised by bioenergy fuel cycles. Status/Accomplishments: Findings included: About half of the organizations (12) were generally favorable to bioenergy while the rest were divided between supportive with conditions, uncertain, no policy, skeptical or opposed. Discussants held mixed views on biomass feedstocks: some favored energy crops only, some favored residues only, some favored use of both. Most would exclude municipal solid waste and had many questions about use of animal wastes. They were about equally divided on cofiring: favoring combustion of ECs or reluctant or opposed to burning trees. Many had concerns about land use and potential overuse of vulnerable or marginal areas such as CRP lands. More than 80 questions and requests for more information were documented . Principal issues by frequency of mention were sustainable agriculture and forestry, sustainable energy systems, and biodiversity. Global warming is a driver issue, while sensitive issues included forests and use of forest residues, use of CRP and ecologically sensitive lands, combustion as incineration, MSW as feedstock and genetically modified organisms. Conclusions and recommendations include: Support for renewables does not automatically translate into support for bioenergy. Supporters are hopeful, tentative and conditional as they await answers to questions, solid data and demonstration results. A strong skeptical stance describes some influential stakeholders. Stakeholders want factual balanced information about problems as well as benefits in social, environmental and economic areas. A life-cycle analysis of net benefit is needed for every stage of the bioenergy cycle. Publications and Presentations: Peelle, Elizabeth, 1999. Biomass Stakeholder Views and Concerns: Environmental Groups and Some Trade Associations. ORNL/TM-1999/271. 56 p., http://bioenergy.ornl.gov/reports/misc/stakeholder.html Peelle, Elizabeth. Oct. 1999. "Perspectives of Environmental Groups on Energy Crops and Bioenergy." Bioenergy Workshop, Alexandria, MN. Summary Date: December 1999

	98-99 Project Summaries - Table of Contents Last updated: Tuesday, 19-Dec-2000 08:10:49 EST