Monte Carlo

Prepared by:
Primavera Systems, Inc.

Prepared for:
Public purchase

Application:
Financial analysis:
Environmental impact analysis: ---
Waste management/P2:
Environmental cost listing/database: ---
Cost estimation: ---
Alternative product/process comparison: ---

Project risk analysis and simulation. It is not clear if risks due to environment-related factors can be considered, or if contingent

Elements of control:
Cost control ---
Resource control ---
Estimating control ---
Schedule control
Scope control ---
Risk control

Development date and updates:
The first release was in 1990. The current release is version 2.0,released in 1993. A Windows version of the program is expected to be released in the end of 1995/early 1996.

Public availability:
Available

Purpose and current use:
Cross industry. Monte Carlo has ~ 1000 users (not sites).

Cost information:
The system costs ~ $5,000.

System requirements:
The minimum hardware requirements are an IBM PC (or compatible) with 80386and 80387, 4 MB RAM (minimum), and DOS 3.1.

Software summary

Size and complexity of projects:
Various sizes and complexities

Other compatible systems offered:
Primavera Project Planner (P3-Project Planner for Windows), Finest Hour, and SureTrak Project Manager.

Nonquantifiable information:
Import text files

The Monte Carlo software is for analyzing risk and mitigation measures. It uses the Monte Carlo simulation method to help quantify the effects of the many variables that can affect the outcomes of a project. It can be linked with Primavera Project Planner (P3-project planner for Windows) project data to analyze expected dates, costs and critically develop contingency plans or make go or no-go decisions. Features of Monte Carlo include the following:

The system also has many other features such as variable resource availability, user-defined correlations among cost elements and work efforts, probabilistic resource rates, and others. The reports and graphics for cost analysis include cost histograms and history graphs, cost probability curves, and cost/performance risk reports.

Life-cycle stages covered

Raw material acquisition ---
Manufacturing stage
Use/reuse/maintenance ---
Recycle/waste management ---

The system is not designed to consider more than one life-cycle stage, which would typically be the manufacturing stage of the life cycle.

Type of costs considered

Conventional
Potentially hidden ---
Contingent ---
External ---

It has been designed to consider only conventional costs. The accuracy of estimates if applied to other types of costs or in estimating liability costs is unclear.

Method of cost estimation

The system is not designed for cost estimation.

Generation of financial indicators

Net present value (NPV) ---
Payback period ---
Internal rate of return (IRR) ---
Benefits cost ratio ---
Other ---

Ability to include environmental costs

User friendliness and flexibility

Unlike some other risk assessment tools on the market, Monte Carlo is geared specifically towards uncertainties associated with project management. It has many additional features such as stochastic analysis of critical activity paths, resource pools, unit cost tables, and probabilistic and conditional branching rules. The reports and graphics are also tailored for project managers.

User-support

Telephone hotline support and bulletin board service. A working demonstration disk of Monte Carlo is available.

Limitations

The system has many different features but is also more expensive than many of the basic risk assessment tools that are available. It does consider all cost categories.

Basis for evaluation:
Based on information received from Primavera Systems in February, 1995

Contact information:

Primavera Systems Inc
Two Bala Plaza
Bala Cynwyd, PA 19004

610-667-8600
610-667-7894 (FAX)

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