Freiman Analysis of System Techniques (FAST)

Prepared by:
Freiman Parametric Systems (FPS), Inc.

Prepared for:
U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Plans and Resource Management

Application:
Financial analysis:
Environmental impact analysis: ---
Waste management/P2:
Environmental cost listing/database: ---
Cost estimation: ---
Alternative product/process comparison: ---

Parametric cost estimating tool for various functions. It estimates costs for items such as construction, equipment, software, and mining and is can be applied for conceptual to detailed estimating. FAST-E can be applied for predicting equipment costs for projects in consumer, commercial and industrial systems, commercial and military aerospace systems, industrial and chemical plants, and nuclear power stations.

Elements of control:
Cost control
Resource control
Estimating control
Schedule control ---
Scope control
Risk control ---

Development data and updates:
Development date and updates: Development began ~ 1980. The developer began researching and making parametric cost estimating systems in the late 1960s. The last release of FAST-E was in early 1995. The next major release will be the integrated system, and is expected in early, 1996.

Public availability:
Available

Purpose and current use:
Was initially developed as part of work done under a DOE project. Currently being used in various different industries

Cost information:
DOE has free access to the systems, but need to pay for time sharing services. The system prices can range from $1000 to $30,000. Detailed cost information can be obtained from FPS.

System requirements:
IBM PC based. FAST-E, FAST-C, and FAST-CO can be run on IBM 286 or 386computers but need a FAST hardware control locking device. All the systems require 10 MB RAM and 500 K (minimum) on the hard drive. Windows-95 compatible.

Software summary

Size and complexity of projects:
The system can be used for various project sizes and complexities.

Other compatible systems offered:
Different systems designed for specific areas, such as estimating equipment costs, construction costs, etc. have been developed. FPS is working on providing the option for integrating these systems. The different FAST systems will be then available as modular options.

Nonquantifiable information:
Information not available

Software summary

The FAST system can estimate the costs of various design or schedule scenarios. The modeling system enables users to obtain early estimates, especially in the area of high technology. This is possible because the system is based on concept/design-related data, as well as the technological phenomena underlying design, which determine the manner in which costs can change. The Office of Assistant Secretary for Defense Programs in the U.S. DOE funded and used the following FAST items.

Other programs include:

All FAST systems, including FAST-ABC, use fuzzy logic to generate algorithmsbased on examples provided by users of the required structure using two or moresample projects.

Life-cycle stages covered

Raw material acquisition
Manufacturing stage
Use/reuse/maintenance
Recycle/waste management

FAST has different systems that can consider these life-cycle stages. FAST-M, which can be used to determine mining costs, can consider the raw material acquisition stage. FAST-CO can consider the cost of ownership of a project, from conception through its useful life (for up to 60-year projects). This could potentially consider the remaining three life-cycle stages. It may also be possible to incorporate data from the first stage. FPS is currently developing an integrated system that includes all the FAST systems. This will allow users to consider all the life-cycle stages, using one system.

Type of costs considered

Conventional
Potentially hidden
Contingent ---
External ---

The system is mainly designed to include conventional costs. Hidden cost items considered will include maintenance and use/reuse costs. FAST-ABC can be used to make hidden environmental costs more visible. There are no default settings for estimating potentially hidden regulatory, voluntary, and other environmental costs. However, all FAST systems work using fuzzy logic. Thus, users can describe situations similar to the current project (for instance, by using old projects), and FAST will develop relationship models based on these examples. In this manner, all cost categories can be estimated by FAST systems. However, users will still need historical or sample projects that provide the required specifications and data needed to build these algorithms.

Method of cost estimation

FAST uses parametric cost estimating. Parametric modeling is a technique in which values are input as specific parameters. For example, for an estimate of the cost per square foot of constructing a building, square footage can be a parameter. Users can use such parameters to develop estimates from historical data. The database comes with the software but can also be defined by users. FAST also considers other factors such as design, location, and construction materials that can affect the cost. Furthermore, it considers the effects of factors such as earthquakes, tornadoes, or radiation on costs. The bottoms-up method of estimation can also be used. Site-specific construction information for these models was collected by Frank Freiman.

For example, projects in FAST-E can be defined using equipment weight, or users can define the product's technology and inputs that depict performance characteristics. ENTYPE is the factor that describes the mix of technological masses that make up the product. The program provides several procedures for calculating and parameters can be heat, motion, electrical, etc. Performance characteristics describe the equipment's functionality (inputs and outputs, performance requirements, such as gallons per minute). Projects in all FAST systems can use up to 5-level WBSs.

Generation of financial indicators

Net present value (NPV) ---
Payback period ---
Internal rate of return (IRR) ---
Benefits cost ratio ---
Other ---

Ability to include environmental costs

User-friendliness and flexibility

FAST is user friendly and accepts individually tailored inputs. FAST-E has an extensive help library, and every input and output variable has a context-help capability (can also be used as a tutorial). FAST-E also has an extensive library of error messages. All FAST-E inputs and outputs, including accumulations and screen displays can be saved to output files named by users. These can be independently printed or edited using standard word processors. All the FAST models come equipped with self-contained tutorials.

FAST also estimates the costs of connective and support systems (piping, plumbing, wires). It provides risk measurements by displaying cost uncertainties for each cost segment. The system is especially useful in the early stages of a project, program, or product, when little design has been done. In addition to identifying principal features and relating them to cost, it quantifies intuition based on experience and can recognize the conditions that make situations different. It can produce detailed estimates as well. It includes tables and reference factors.

FAST-E, FAST-CO, and FAST-ABC may have the potential to be extended to analyze various areas in life-cycle cost analysis. A unique feature of FAST is its use of fuzzy logic. This provides a method for users to estimate environmental costs, by applying the required specifications. FPS is currently developing an integrated system that will include all the FAST models. This system will be PC-based, with the option to be used on a laptop and on networks. This will be available in around 1986. The system is expected to cost over$25,000. This system could have potential for being used for life-cycle cost analysis.

User-support

FPS offers a number of training packages, including on-site and off-site training. The cost of training is based on user-requirements. A working demonstration disk is available for FAST-E that allows users to analyze up to 3studies.

Limitations

The FAST system models are relationship models; users need historical data to run these. That is, they need a basis and specifications from which to derive estimates; then they can proceed to modifying parameters to simulate different situations. FAST systems do not include any default information on regulatory, contingent, or less-tangible costs. If users want to extend the system to these other areas, they need to develop and apply the required historical information.

Basis for evaluation:
The information provided here is based on WEC (1992), and Youngblood(1992). Subsequent reviews were done by incorporating updated product information and through telephone communications FPS in April, 1995.

Contact information:
Available through Freiman Parametric Systems.
Freiman Parametric Systems, Inc.
2508 Iron Forge Road
Herndon, VA 22071


Frank Freiman (President)
Nancy Mauro (VP)


305-978-9597
800-892-4286
Internet: FASTE@AOL.COM


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